---
title: "Bitcoin Nears New ATH Amid Positive Q4 Seasonality: Report"
url: https://diffcoin.com/bitcoin-nears-new-ath-amid-positive-q4-seasonality-report/
description: "Despite macroeconomic headwinds, Bitcoin looks primed to create a new all-time high, charged by positive Q4 2024 seasonality."
published: 2024-10-30
updated: 2024-10-30
author: "Mila"
site: "Diffcoin"
---

# Bitcoin Nears New ATH Amid Positive Q4 Seasonality: Report

Despite macroeconomic headwinds, Bitcoin (BTC) looks primed to create a new all-time high (ATH), charged by positive Q4 2024 seasonality.

## Bitcoin New ATH On The Horizon?

On October 28, BTC surged past $71,000, sparking optimism for a new ATH above the $73,737 peak recorded in March this year. Although BTC has crossed the $70,000 threshold multiple times since then, it has yet to set a new ATH.

According to a recent report from the cryptocurrency trading platform Bitfinex, Bitcoin could be on track for a new ATH shortly after the US presidential election. Bitcoin is often seen as a “Trump trade,” exhibiting a strong correlation with Donald Trump’s election odds.

For example, after a 6% decline last week, BTC has regained all losses, coinciding with Trump’s rising election odds on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform.

At the time of writing, Trump leads with a 66.1% chance of winning versus Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who stands at 33.9%. However, opinion polls show a close race, making the election outcome uncertain.

![polymarket](https://bitcoinist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/polymarket.png?resize=804%2C660)

Source: Polymarket

A possible Trump victory is stirring the options market. According to the report, while short-term volatility may increase closer to election results, BTC’s long-term bullish outlook remains intact. It states:

> Options expiring on key dates around the election are commanding higher premiums, with implied volatility expected to peak at 100 daily vol on November 8th, just after Election Day – indicating that the market is bracing for potential turbulence. Regardless of the election outcome, short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual though we remain confident in longer-term price appreciation.

It is worth highlighting that BTC dipped as low as $52,756 in September. However, the premier digital asset rallied almost 30% in October, inspiring some confidence in the “Uptober” narrative.

## Seasonality Is On Bitcoin’s Side

The report emphasizes that BTC is positioned to benefit from “favorable Q4 seasonality.” Historically, Q4 has been profitable for BTC during halving years, giving a median quarterly return of 31.34%.

The buildup in call options expiring December 27 – especially at the $80,000 strike price – also bolsters BTC’s Q4 2024 bullish outlook. The report adds:

> As options open interest climbs to new highs, the market is showing signs of positioning for a post-election surge, potentially propelling Bitcoin towards—and beyond—its all-time high of $73,666.

In similar news earlier this month, crypto research firm K33 Research remarked that the latest positive developments in the FTX fiasco propel Bitcoin’s bullish Q4 narrative.

BTC trades at $71,110 at press time, up 3.1% in the past 24 hours and about 3.5% away from its current ATH. Whether BTC will continue its upward trend through the rest of the quarter or face another rejection remains to be seen.

![bitcoin](https://bitcoinist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/bitcoin_d21815.png?resize=889%2C660)

BTC trades at $71,110 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Charts from Polymarket and TradingView.com

[Source link](https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-nears-new-ath-amid-positive-q4-seasonality-report/)