Bitcoin Headed Below $60,000? Geopolitical Tensions Might Present Buying Opportunity, Analyst Says

Mila October 3, 2024

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According to Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Bitcoin (BTC) dropping below $60,000 due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could offer a prime buying opportunity.

Bitcoin Below $60,000, A Buying Opportunity?

As tensions between Iran and Israel intensify, risk-on assets like Bitcoin may face a downturn as investors flock to safer investments such as gold. However, Kendrick suggests that the potential pullback in digital assets like BTC could be an opportunity for accumulation.

In a recently shared note, Kendrick remarked:

Risk concerns related to the Middle East seem destined to push bitcoin below $60,000 before the weekend, but, positions like the $80,000 call options highlighted here and the circularity vis-à-vis Trump probabilities suggests the dip should be bought into.

Kendrick also noted a surge in call option open interest on Deribit, with an increase of 1,300 BTC in the past two days for December 27 expiry contracts at an $80,000 strike price. This indicates that more traders are betting on a year-end rally for BTC, painting a positive market outlook for the leading cryptocurrency.

The analyst cleared that BTC has not proved itself as a hedge against geopolitical tensions yet, and that gold still reigns supreme during times of global uncertainties. However, Bitcoin is a hedge against traditional finance (TradFi) mishaps such as bank collapses or de-dollarization.

A Donald Trump Win Seen As Bullish For Digital Assets

Kendrick drew attention to the potential impact of the recent Iranian offensive against Israel on the upcoming US presidential election. He said the development has slightly tilted the odds in Trump’s favor against Kamala Harris. This can be verified through data on Polymarket, which places Trump’s chance of emerging victorious at 50% compared to Harris’ 49%.

Calling it an “interesting circularity for Bitcoin,” Kendrick explained that while geopolitical tensions might push BTC price lower in the short term, they increase Trump’s odds of winning, subsequently improving the digital asset’s post-election outlook.

Trump is widely seen as a pro-crypto candidate. Recently, he was spotted buying hamburgers in a New York City bar, where he paid using Bitcoin.

In contrast, Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, is viewed with some skepticism by the crypto community. The Biden administration has been criticized for its perceived crackdown on the crypto industry, which has driven many crypto businesses to relocate to more crypto-friendly countries like Singapore and the UAE.

That said, Harris’ recent statements on cryptocurrencies have sparked some optimism. For instance, she promised to invest in America’s competitiveness by fostering a more favorable regulatory environment for emerging technologies, including digital assets.

Similarly, crypto trading firm QCP Capital noted that a win for Harris might not be as bearish as some crypto investors might fear. BTC trades at $60,090 at press time, down 5.7% in the past 24 hours.