Arthur Hayes predicts Q1 Bitcoin top amid Treasury and Fed liquidity shifts

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Key Takeaways

Arthur Hayes projects a Q1 Bitcoin peak driven by a $612 billion liquidity injection, combining Federal Reserve and Treasury impacts.
Hayes eyes DeSci opportunities, positioning investments ahead of a forecasted cycle peak.

Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO and current CIO of Maelstrom, forecasts that Bitcoin will reach a local top by the end of Q1 2025, driven by significant liquidity injections from US financial institutions.

In a new blog post published on Monday night, Hayes explained that this outlook is rooted in anticipated liquidity injections from key US financial entities, including the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department.

Hayes’ analysis suggests that these liquidity shifts will act as a significant tailwind for Bitcoin’s rally.

They could help counter potential disappointments stemming from the delayed implementation of pro-crypto policies under the Trump administration.

Hayes highlights two key liquidity sources driving Q1 2025 markets.

Adjustments to the Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) have redirected $237 billion into higher-yielding Treasury bills, while Treasury General Account (TGA) drawdowns under Janet Yellen are expected to add $375 billion by March.

Combined, these create a $612 billion liquidity boost, fueling Bitcoin and other risk assets.

“March appears to be a time when the market will ask, ‘What’s next?’” Hayes said, suggesting the TGA balance will be nearly depleted by then, marking peak liquidity impact.

Drawing on historical patterns, Hayes anticipates a local Bitcoin top in March 2025, coinciding with peak liquidity.

While optimistic about Bitcoin’s short-term outlook, Hayes remains cautious of macroeconomic uncertainties, including Federal Reserve policy shifts.

Confident in the predictive power of RRP and TGA changes, he is steering Maelstrom’s strategy toward high-risk opportunities like decentralized science (DeSci) tokens, capitalizing on the favorable liquidity environment.

Hayes revealed that Maelstrom has already begun building its portfolio in the decentralized science (DeSci) sector, targeting what he calls “undervalued dogshit” tokens.

The fund has acquired a range of assets including $BIO, $VITA, $ATH, $GROW, $PSY, $CRYO, and $NEURON.