The Bitcoin price is approaching the top of its bull flag once again. Will there be a definitive breakout? If the breakout is weak, or if it fails to happen, could this be the beginning of the end for this current bull market cycle?
A changing Bitcoin cycle?
If Bitcoin is to make this current bull market cycle one of the more successful ones, the price is going to need to break out soon. On the other hand, some analysts believe that the typical 4-year cycle is changing, and that the sheer amount of institutional money entering the Bitcoin space will push the end of the cycle out to Q1 or Q2 of 2026.
If this is going to be the case, the Bitcoin price would have plenty of time for more consolidation before heading into the final phase.
However, if we are still in the 4-year cycle, the clock is starting to run down, with only three or four months left before a potential blow-off top at some time in November perhaps?
A huge turnaround in the U.S. stock market
Source: TradingView
On the macro side of things there are positives for Bitcoin. Recent huge trade deals have been agreed with Japan and the EU, which have led to renewed optimism in the U.S. stock market.
The chart above of the S&P 500 shows the most incredible turn around from the depths of pessimism over the Trump tariffs, to the record-breaking surge that is currently being experienced.
It’s in this kind of environment that Bitcoin can generally be expected to surge. Therefore, it is possibly just a matter of time before Bitcoin embarks on another strong rally to the upside.
Shallow rejection for $BTC?
Source: TradingView
The short-term price chart for $BTC reveals that the price was rejected at the top of the bull flag once again. However, the correctional impulse has so far been rather shallow, only descending as far as the important $118,000 horizontal support. From there, the price has bounced back and is once more flirting with the upper trendline of the bull flag.
Will there be a breakout from here? It is entirely possible. All shorter term Stochastic RSI indicators have a way to go before reaching their tops, so momentum is still with the $BTC price.
Flag or ascending triangle?
Source: TradingView
As one zooms further out into the daily time frame, the bull flag becomes less reliable as a pattern, with candle wicks rather than candle bodies unsatisfactorily forming some of the touch points. Therefore, there is the possibility of other patterns becoming valid. The chart above shows an ascending triangle pattern, which keeps the touch points to the candle bodies. If this is a valid pattern, it would be a very bullish one.
The Stochastic RSI at the bottom of the chart has the indicators now angled back to the upside. This would also tend to suggest that positive price action is likely to follow.
Probabilities of more upside price action
Source: TradingView
The weekly time frame illustrates that whatever the candle pattern is, it does have the sideways movement of a continuation formation. Also, given that this pattern is smaller than previous ones, it is far more likely to break out sooner.
Moving down the chart, the Stochastic RSI on this time frame has the indicator lines shaping to cross back down, while at the bottom of the chart, the RSI indicator line may have a bullish bounce from the ascending yellow moving average line.
Predicting price movements is a very uncertain art. All the price action and indicators can do is to give hints on probabilities of future price direction. Fundamentally, it does look as though the direction for Bitcoin should be up, but technically this is still uncertain. That said, the probabilities of more upward price action are more likely than to the downside.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
