Bitcoin Faces ‘Septembear’ Decline as Historical Patterns Suggest Monthly High Near

According to historical patterns, Bitcoin sets its monthly high or low within the first 12 days of the month more than 80% of the time.

“It’s been a good strategy to wait out the first few days of the month, as it generally sees choppy price action with a lot of shakeouts,” said full-time trader and analyst Daan Crypto Trades on Tuesday.

He said that seasonality for September isn’t the best, but October and November are generally very good. “With that all in mind, any larger dip at the start of this month will be one to watch closely,” he added.

$BTC A new month ahead.

Statistics say that Bitcoin sets its monthly high or low within the first 12 days of the month 80%+ of the times.

It’s been a good strategy to wait out the first few days of the month as it generally sees choppy price action with a lot of shakeouts.… pic.twitter.com/Bzx9eE0h7w

— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) September 1, 2025

A Bearish Month for Bitcoin

According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin has declined in 8 out of the last 12 Septembers it has traded, so odds are that this one will also be red since it is a bull market year.

BTC fell by more than 7% in the ‘Septembear’ of the 2017 and 2021 bull market years, so a repeat of history could see it slide to just over $100,000 by the end of the month.

“Historically, September has been the worst month for Bitcoin, with an average return of -3.47% over the past 13 years,” observed analyst ‘Mags.’

#Bitcoin – Buy in September, Sell in November ?

Historically, September has been the worst month for Bitcoin, with an average return of -3.47% over the past 13 years, while October and November have been the most bullish months for Bitcoin. pic.twitter.com/ATDGuvNYnZ

— Mags (@thescalpingpro) September 1, 2025

In the short term, ‘Crypto Caesar’ predicted a potential bounce off current levels, but cautioned that a continued downward trend could send BTC back to support at around $100,000.

“Bitcoin is sitting right on the short-term holder realized price,” which is a key support/resistance level to watch, said CryptoQuant analyst JA Maartun.

Additionally, none of the CoinGlass Bitcoin bull market indicators have been triggered yet, adding further weight to the current decline being a predictable seasonal correction.

BTC Price Outlook

Bitcoin is trading up around 2.5% on the day, which has enabled it to reclaim the $110,000 level for the first time since Friday.

It bounced off an intraday low of $107,500 to hit $110,500 during early trading in Asia on Tuesday morning, but appears to have hit resistance there.

BTC is currently 11% down from its all-time high, which is pretty shallow compared to previous September market corrections … but there is still a long way to go this month.