Is It Time to Panic?

TL;DR

• Bitcoin drops 6% as over 130,000 traders face $550M in liquidations amid short squeeze pressure.
• Short-term holder behavior is steady at 47% share with no net flow in the last 30 days.
• All eyes on Trump-Zelenskyy meeting, Fed minutes, and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech as BTC struggles below ATH.

Bitcoin Pulls Back After Tapping All-Time High

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $115,300, down 2% in the last 24 hours and 6% over the past week. Four days ago, it reached a new all-time high of over $124,300. Since then, the asset has retreated, with the current 7-day range sitting between $115,355 and $123,780.

Notably, this price action comes as liquidations spike. In the last 24 hours, over 131,000 traders were liquidated, totaling over $550 million. The largest single loss was a $7.80 million BTC position on Bitmex. More than $6 billion in short interest remains open, which could unwind quickly if Bitcoin moves back near the $124K level.

According to data shared by CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr, short-term holders (STH) currently make up 47% of the realized cap. Over the past 30 days, their net change has been zero, meaning value has not shifted between newer and older wallets in any meaningful way.

The chart shows the share of STH (<6m) in realized cap (orange line) and its 30-day change STH 30d Δ (blue line).

The blue curve represents the net migration of value toward young coins over the past 30 days. Growth indicates accelerating turnover and distribution from old… pic.twitter.com/R1PYsqu4xJ

— Axel Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) August 18, 2025

Adler noted that periods of rapid growth or decline in this metric have often aligned with market turning points. Sharp increases near +10% have marked overheated tops. Drops below -10% have occurred during price bottoms or after capitulation. 

A zero reading at all-time highs suggests a steady state. Adler called this an “equilibrium regime,” adding that the price may consolidate before the next move.

Market Metrics Offer Conflicting Signals

Bitcoin’s Seller Exhaustion Constant remains high. This measure tracks pressure from short-term selling and is used to gauge when sellers are losing momentum. Previous deep drops in this line have marked market bottoms. Current levels suggest some selling may still be in play.

Analyst @charl3li commented, 

“We could see some downside in the next two weeks, but top is not in for the mid term, it seems.” 

Another analyst, On-Chain College, pointed to the MVRV ratio, stating the market has not reached levels seen in past cycle peaks. “Calling a Bitcoin top here is fighting history and probability,” they said.

In addition, markets are now looking ahead to three major events: Federal Reserve minutes and Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. Both are expected later this week and may influence Bitcoin’s direction.

Also, Trump and Zelenskyy are set to meet today, which could also lead to some fluctuations.

Premium on Coinbase Hints at Larger Bids

The Coinbase Premium—the price difference between Coinbase and other major exchanges—is at a one-month high. Yet Bitcoin is still moving lower. Analyst Cas Abbé shared two possibilities: “Either the buyer is Saylor only, who has been twapping for days. Or, some big entities are accumulating in silence before a big event.”

At the same time, Material Indicators observed that Bitcoin held above its 21-day moving average. Their latest update included a caution: 

“That’s a pretty solid Trend Precognition ⬇️ signal on the Weekly chart.” 

They noted that it reduces the odds of an immediate breakout.

As the price holds below recent highs, traders continue to watch how the next move will unfold.