Q3 Was a Game-Changer for ETH, $6,500 is Q4 Base Case – Mulhem

Ether still has a lot of room for further price growth despite already rallying around 150% from its 2025 lows, according to financial analyst Suliman Mulhem.

ETH fell below $1,700 in April amid tariff-driven uncertainty and de-risking, but in the space of a few months, it staged a sharp rally and set a new all-time high in August. 

It has since dropped back under $4,500, and numerous analysts have warned that it is likely to fall under $4,000 during September, which is typically a turbulent month for cryptocurrencies and stocks. 

However, despite history indicating that September will see Ether’s price fall, Mulhem believes ETH is likely to rebound above $4,500 this month and potentially set a new high.

“In the short-term, the most straightforward bullish set-up for Ether and the broader crypto market – and in my view, the base case – is for Thursday’s ADP Employment Report and Friday’s BLS US Employment Report to come in roughly at expectations, with monthly payroll growth of around 60,000-80,000,” he said.

“This level of jobs growth is weak enough to necessitate a rate cut at the September FOMC, but strong enough not to trigger a sell-off over heightened fears of a recession.

“In the event of the data showing very strong jobs growth, this would allay fears of a recession or a sharp deterioration in the labour market, but it could convince the FOMC not to cut the federal funds rate in September, especially if next week’s CPI and PPI data comes in hotter-than-expected. 

“This is why significantly stronger-than-expected jobs growth is likely to be bearish, or at the very least sub-optimal, on this occasion. 

“On the other hand, jobs growth under 40,000 or negative growth is likely to create a knee-jerk risk-off environment and trigger a sell-off across equities and crypto. 

“However, if weaker-than-expected jobs growth is coupled with relatively tame inflation reports, this is likely to prompt a 50bps rate cut in September and potentially trigger a V-shaped recovery and lead to new highs, contingent on FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell being able to convince markets that a soft-landing remains the most likely outcome.”

With regards to ETH’s performance after September, Mulhem said Ether going above $6,500 in Q4 is his base case “provided recessionary risks remain minimal and under control.”

He went on to describe Q3 as a “game-changer” for ETH, and highlighted other bullish catalysts on the horizon.

“Q3 was a game-changer for Ether as it marked the start of an unprecedented acceleration in ETH ETF inflows and corporate accumulation, with BitMine Immersion Technologies leading the charge for the latter,” Mulhem said. 

“Inflows into ETH exchange-traded funds have dwarfed inflows into Bitcoin ETFs in recent weeks, and this trend is likely to continue, particularly in October and November. 

“Furthermore, Ether’s sharp rally has led to renewed interest from retail investors, who are likely to contribute buying support in the coming months and supplement institutional and corporate demand for ETH.

“The growth of tokenization and the US government’s interest in strengthening the global dominance of the US Dollar via stablecoins are both major tailwinds for Ether.”

Mulhem forecasts the SEC will approve ETH ETF staking before the end of the 2025, which he believes will be a “major bullish catalyst” as it will lead to “a substantial increase in institutional demand for Ether.”

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

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